Guess it’s time to tackle the Oscar predictions again now after all the major precursors have had their say. Well, except guilds but for them we need to wait a bit longer. The Golden Globes are in, so are the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) nominations. And the most of the critics group have had their say, like New York’s Film Critics Circle (NYFCC), Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) and National Board of Review (NBR). And many others. Some of them are more likeminded with the Academy members, some of them are not but like every year I check them all and take notice. And again I have ended up with my own predictions which are again very much like others are predicting. And let’s take a look at them now. Category by category.
I already had some predictions earlier this year for the best picture (vol 1, vol 2 and vol 3) but those were back in August and some predictions for actresses and actors in October. Let’s take a look at he best picture category again. There might be some changes in my predictions after this post before the nominations are announced but they will probably be minor.
The Best Picture
2. American Hustle
5. Inside Llewyn Davis
6. The Wolf of Wall Street
8. Captain Phillips
9. Saving Mr Banks
Dallas Buyers Club
As you can see, I predict there’ll be nine contenders. The latter six are really long-shots and all of the films are in likelihood of winning. I could put Gravity to number two but I doubt it, it has lost its momentum a lot and because I believe the best film and the best director are again going go different films, I don’t believe Gravity will win the best picture. 12 Years a Slave have dominated critics groups awards and even though I haven’t seen it yet, it’s hard to believe it doesn’t deserve all the attention it’s getting. I’ve only seen five of the films on this list and to me Nebraska has been the best of the year so far (my review). Captain Phillips was kind of whatever, good but nothing spectacular, and Before Midnight was tiring. Way too much fighting but I have to admit, I did like the way Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy acted, they were unbelievably natural. I liked Blue Jasmine a lot but it’s Blanchett show and I believe Woody has to settle with screenwriting nod this time. And the last but of course not the least is Gravity that is spectacular but a little bit empty film (my review) but then again, it’s unmissable.
If we take a look to my earlier predictions, I’ve ditched one from my then-top-5 but only because it’s delayed until next year. And from then-top-10 I’ve left out Foxcatcher for same reason and then August: Osage County. I’m still not sure about it but it really looks like that even Julia Roberts and Meryl Streep need to fight for their nominations, so I’ve excluded it. Fruitvale Station is still in my long shots but then again, I’m predicting only nine films to get the nomination this time. Back in August (or if read carefully, I’ve made those predictions in July but posted in August) I had Gravity and 12 Years a Slave in my “bubbling under” list what seems kind of funny now after seeing them marching from victory to victory or collecting big bucks at the box office. Two of the bubblingunders were turkeys, The Fifth Estate and The Counselor but three of them are still on my long shot list; Blue Jasmine, Before Midnight and The Butler. Two that are left out are All Is Lost which I believe will only get a nod to its star, Robert Redford. And maybe in sound categories. Don’t know, haven’t heard it yet. And the second is The Past that will probably only be nominated in Foreign Language category.
But all in all, I was quite on target in summer already (such a humble girl, or what?), there really haven’t been big surprises when it comes to this category. Wait, no, there’s one! HER. Even though it has always brilliant Joaquin Phoenix I never thought it would be as good as it appears to be. I still have to wait until February to see it but I already love the trailer, it looks so heartbreakingly lovely and funny.
Keep on tuned, I will continue go through these almost-final predictions before the end of the year. And meanwhile, if I make any changes, those can be found at Gold Derby!