Oscar Predictions 2017: Winners

2017oscarsOK, so I totally ran out of time, so let’s just cut to the chase. Here are my predicted winners and the ones that I wish would win. I missed a lot of films this year, so my wish-list is limited.

lalalandBest Picture

Winner: La La Land
Wish: La La Land

Directing

Winner: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Wish: Tie between Chazelle & Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Actor in a Leading Role

Winner: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Wish: Casey

emmastonestageActress in a Leading Role

Winner: Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Wish: Emma Stone, La La Land

Actress in a Supporting Role

Winner: Viola Davis, Fences
Wish: I don’t care

Actor in a Supporting Role

Winner: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Wish: Don’t care

Adapted Screenplay

Winner: Moonlight, Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney
Wish: Arrival, Eric Heisserer

arrival-villeneuve

Original Screenplay

Winner: Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan
Wish: Manchester

Animated Feature Film

Winner: Zootopia
Wish: Kubo and the Two Strings

Foreign Language Film

Winner: The Salesman (Iran)
Wish: No opinion as I haven’t seen any of these

oj_madeinamericaDocumentary Feature

Winner: O.J.: Made in America
Wish: Again, no opinion

 

Cinematography

Winner: La La Land, Linus Sandgren
Wish: Arrival, Bradford Young

Film Editing

Winner: La La Land, Tom Cross
Wish: La La Land

Production Design

Winner: La La Land, Davis Wasco and Sandy Reynolds-Wasco
Wish: Arrival, Patrice Vermette and Paul Hotte

Costume Design

Winner: Jackie, Madeline Fontaine
Wish: La La Land, Mary Zophres

Makeup and Hairstyling

Winner: Star Trek Beyond, Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo
Wish: ?

Original Score

Winner: La La Land, Justin Hurwitz
Wish: La La Land

LLL d 12 _2353.NEF

Original Song

Winner: “City of Stars,” La La Land, music by Justin Hurwitz, lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
Wish: “Audition (The Fools who Dream),” La La Land, music by Justin Hurwitz, lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

Sound Editing

Winner: Arrival, Sylvain Bellemare
Wish: Arrival, Sylvain Bellemare

Sound Mixing

Winner: La La Land, Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow
Wish: La La Land

Visual Effects

Winner: The Jungle Book, Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Dan Lemmon
Wish: Kubo and the Two Strings, Steve Emerson, Oliver Jones, Brian McLean, and Brad Schiff

piperAnimated Short Subject

Winner: Piper
Wish: Don’t care

Live Action Short Film

Winner: Silent Nights
Wish: ?

Documentary Short Subject

Winner: The White Helmets
Wish: The White Helmets

The First Oscar Predictions 2017 – Best Pic #1

The 85th Academy Awards® will air live on Oscar® Sunday, February 24, 2013.As promised, I’ll take a little more detailed look to upcoming Oscar hopefuls. Here are the first seven Best Picture hopefuls that I think have good chances to end up being nominated.

First, but surely not least, is Damien Chazelle’s La La Land starring always adorable Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling. Right now La La Land’s hype is huge! The most of the Oscars are its to lose at the moment. I just hope it actually is as good as everyone is saying. It’s going around festivals now and was in official selection at Venice and won the best actress for Emma Stone in there as well as People’s Choice at Toronto International Film Festival. It has critics and audience by its side already.

emma_stone_ryan_gosling

La La Land is a musical set in LA and apparently it’s made in style of those oldies goldies like Singin’ in the Rain. I, myself, can’t wait to see it. I love Emma and Ryan together and here they even sing. Stone plays an aspiring actress and Gosling a jazz pianist. And they fall in love. And the tagline of the film is “Here’s to the fools who dream.” Two greatest films of this decade for me are Drive, starring Ryan Gosling, and Whiplash, directed by Damien Chazelle, so, talking about high hopes…

Next up is Manchester by the Sea that already got raves in Sundance, back in January. It still looks like it’s going strong. The film is directed and written by Kenneth Lonergan who’s been nominated two times for an Oscar, both for writing. And Manchester by the Sea seems to be another hit. I believe it will be nominated again at least for writing and for the lead actor, Casey Affleck. Besides Affleck, the flick stars Michelle Williams, Kyle Chandler and Lucas Hedges whom all might have a change to get nominated. I like the trailer a lot, it looks like it’s well acted and especially well written. It will probably make you cry but also laugh. It feels like life.

Silence. A passion project of 20 years by none other than Martin Scorsese. Starring Andrew Garfield, Liam Neeson, Adam Driver and Ciáran Hinds. Synopsis from IMDb says “In the seventeenth century, two Jesuit priests face violence and persecution when they travel to Japan to locate their mentor and propagate Christianity.” Opening in the late December. Everything just screams Oscar, doesn’t it? No trailer available yet, only couple of photos.

liam-neeson-silence

#OscarsSoWhite will be THE THING at the next year’s Oscars. Or better said it will not be and thus there probably will be multiple nominations to the films that handle the subject of minorities facing thread from the majority. The Birth of a Nation being one of them. The longer synopsis of the film says:

“Set against the antebellum South, THE BIRTH OF A NATION follows Nat Turner (Nate Parker), a literate slave and preacher, whose financially strained owner, Samuel Turner (Armie Hammer), accepts an offer to use Nat’s preaching to subdue unruly slaves. As he witnesses countless atrocities – against himself and his fellow slaves – Nat orchestrates an uprising in the hopes of leading his people to freedom.”

According to critics the film is good or even better and obviously, the subject matter is hot and current with everything going on in the world at the moment. The film launched in the States yesterday and according to Box Office Mojo, it performed well and got a cinemascore “A” from the audience which bodes well. The director/writer, Nate Parker, has been under public eye lately because of rape charges in his youth and that might hurt the film’s chances at the Oscars. At least his personal chances. The film also won both, Grand Jury and Audience Awards at Sundance.

Ang Lee is back with Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. And at least the trailer looks amazing! I love it. And I hope it will deliver. I’m also super excited that Lee chose a newcomer to play the lead role of Billy Lynn. Joe Alwyn must be good.

The film is shot with 120 frames per second, so Ang Lee is again pushing his boundaries. And if the film delivers, which I believe it will (we’ll know better in a week when it will be shown at New York Film Festival), technical categories are a sure thing. Then it’s all up to the story which is based on awards winning novel. The synopsis says “19-year-old Billy Lynn is brought home for a victory tour after a harrowing Iraq battle. Through flashbacks the film shows what really happened to his squad – contrasting the realities of war with America’s perceptions.” According to the test audience, the war scenes are apparently harrowing. I wasn’t a big fan of Life of Pi, except the visuals, but like said, I love this trailer and again I have high hopes.

The second to the last of this post’s films is Loving by Jeff Nichols. It is one of those topical films of the season telling a-based-on-a-real-life story of a mixed-race married couple who were sentenced to prison in 1958 because they married. According to the critics both leads, Joel Edgerton and Ruth Negga, are great. Jeff Nichols as a writer and director has been making better and better films lately from Take Shelter to Mud and again to Midnight Special, so maybe this is his final breakthrough. But to be honest, I doubt it. I might be wrong but the hype is just not big enough. Then again, Focus Features has had those great smaller films at the Oscars almost every year and have won especially for the actors and actresses (Vikander for The Danish Girl, Leto and McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club, Redmayne for Theory of Everything), so I might really be wrong. And I kind of hope I am.

Denis Villeneuve is another up and coming director that one hopes to gain all the success. He has directed great films like Prisoners and excellent Sicario the last year and this time he is in the game with Amy Adams starring Arrival. This time it’s a classic aliens coming the earth story but not one with (just) blasts and bombs but one with communication and slow-burning tension. We’ll see how it will go through. Some say it’s too clean and emotionless but at least the trailer looks interesting and in a good-way eerie. And I’m officially biased as there’s my favourite lady in the lead role and my longtime movie-love in supporting.

There you go. The first seven out of 14 films I have chosen for my first Oscar predictions for 2017. New York Film Festival is about to start the next week and there will be a bunch of films having their first screening. We’ll be much smarter after those. I’ll be back with the latter half of the best pic hopefuls.

Any thoughts?

The Oscar Predictions 2016 #4

The 85th Academy Awards® will air live on Oscar® Sunday, February 24, 2013.And the last predictions are here before the actual nominations announcement.

BEST SCORE

  1. Carol – Carter Burwell
  2. The Danish Girl – Alexander Desplat
  3. The Hateful Eight – Ennio Morricone
  4. Inside Out – Michael Giacchino
  5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens – John Williams
  6. Mad Max: Fury Road – Junkie XL
  7. Sicario – Jóhann JóhanssonSpotlight – Howard Shore
  8. The 33 – James Horner
  9. Bridge of Spies – Thomas Newman

Composers are known to vote the same guys (yes, guys) every year. It’s very hard to break into this category. Carter Burwell has never been nominated for an Oscar but he has been nominated for BAFTA, Golden Globe and Emmy, so I reckon this is his year. All of the others have been nominated, John Williams for 49 times (he has won five times). This year I believe it’ll be Morricone’s. The music of The Hateful Eight was the best in the film. I do hope Junkie XL would make the cut but I doubt it. Sicario’s score is really good, so I kept it there but Jóhann Jóhansson just won the last year, so maybe they won’t nominate him again. James Horner unfortunately died last year in an accident and he might get a nomination because of that. Such a loss. Shore is always an option and so is Thomas Newman who’s been nominated for 12 times but never won. We’ll see.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

  1. Mad Max Fury Road
  2. Carol
  3. Bridge of Spies
  4. The Danish Girl
  5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  6. Cinderella ???
  7. The Martian
  8. The Revenant
  9. Crimson Peak

artisansbridgeofspies_clean

Again some question marks. I have been going back and forth with this category. Cinderella and Crimson Peak both look amazing and I also appreciate how Mars looks in The Martian. And apparently The Revenant works too. But I think this one goes to Bridge of Spies, its set decoration is beautiful and everything is in its place. But I haven’t seen Carol and The Danish Girl yet, so I might chance my mind.

7fa5a9336e440c4abab068973ebbbd5fBEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  1. Carol – Rooney Mara
  2. The Hateful Eight – Jennifer Jason Leigh
  3. Steve Jobs – Kate Winslet
  4. Spotlight – Rachel McAdams
  5. Trumbo – Helen Mirren ????
  6. Clouds of Sils Maria – Kristen Stewart ????
  7. Ex Machina – Alicia Vikander
  8. Youth – Jane Fonda
  9. Love & Mercy – Elizabeth Banks

7e736b8dd9de643fc32fd6ea542bcbf7BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  1. Bridge of Spies – Mark Rylance
  2. Creed – Sylvester
  3. Beasts of No Nation – Idris Elba
  4. 99 Homes – Michael Shannon
  5. Spotlight – Mark Ruffalo
  6. The Big Short – Christian Bale
  7. Spotlight – Michael Keaton
  8. Love & Mercy – Paul Dano
  9. Sicario – Benicio del Toro

My two least favourite categories this year. Not because they’re bad but because I can’t decide. As you can see there are too many possibilities. And I’m not sure at all I chose correctly. With guys all of them are deserving, all nine of them what I’ve read and seen. I’m gambling on Shannon even though in the end the last spot will probably go to Bale or Keaton but this is my gut feeling and I’ll go with it. And when it comes to ladies, I have Vikander in leading category now with The Danish Girl and I really, really wanted to put her here too but as I can’t see Rachel McAdams missing the slot and I think older folk of actors branch will vote for Mirren, I just couldn’t fit her there because the first three are definite. But to be honest, if any of these people get the nod, I’m happy (except maybe in case of Mirren because I thought she over-did her character in Trumbo). Mara and Rylance for awards. I think..?

BEST DIRECTOR

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road – George Miller
  2. Spotlight – Thomas McCarthy
  3. Carol – Todd Haynes
  4. The Revenant – Alejandro Gonzales Iñarritu
  5. The Martian – Ridley Scott
  6. Bridge of Spies – Steven Spielberg
  7. The Big Short – Adam McKay

george_miller_mad_max_MAIN

Everyone’s betting on McKay after BAFTA, Golden Globe and Directors Guild nominations. Well, I disagree. I believe that Miller will get a lot of number one votes because Mad Max has been such a long production from the idea back in 12 years ago or so. I also believe that Scott, Iñarritu and McCarthy are shoo-ins and that leaves only Haynes’ place open and I think he deserves it more. To me the real dark horse is Spielberg and I have a tiny feeling that I’m just underestimating how liked he is. Heck, I love the man myself and would probably give him all the prices you could. He is the best director of all time if I just check the ratings I’ve given to his film. And I love his enthusiasm.  And Bridge of Spies is not bad. Still, I predict he’s out this year. How’s going to win? Your guess is as good as mine…


BEST PICTURE

  1. Spotlight
  2. Mad Max Fury Road
  3. Carolstraightouttacompton
  4. The Martian
  5. The Revenant
  6. The Big Short
  7. Bridge of Spies
  8. Inside Out
  9. Brooklyn
  10. Straight Outta Compton
  11. Room
  12. Trumbo
  13. Sicario
  14. Steve Jobs
  15. The Hateful Eight
  16. Ex Machina

16 films in the running. Still. Maybe 14 if I take out Steve Jobs and Ex Machina that are really long shots which is stupid especially in case of Steve Jobs that will be nominated for the best actor, supporting actress and screenplay at least. Possibly also editing. So it kind of must be one of the best of the last year… Room I took away only today and replaced it with Straight Outta Compton. I don’t believe Compton is better but it’s different and I hate to say this, but it is the only film that has African Americans in the leading roles. Plus it was a pleasant surprise. I think the first six are locks and from the next seven I could put into top-10 any of them. Inside Out is there because I have a gut feeling that this is the one of those rare years when animation will make it to the Best Picture. And winner? Spotlight. The Martian? Mad Max (I wish!). Carol? Or The Revenant? I don’t know. We’ll see.

That’s it folks! Here you can see only the ones that I’m predicting without bubbling unders. Have a happy Oscar time! The stream of  the announcement for the nominations tomorrow (14th) at 5.30AM Pacific Time (that’s 2.30 in Amsterdam, 1.30 in GMT and 3.30 in Finland) can be found here.