The Oscar Predictions 2014 – Shorts, Frozen and Documentary

Ok, Animated Feature for those of you who like other contenders better. I want Frozen to win. Anyhoo, here are my last predictions explained:

FROZN_014M_G_ENG-GB_70x100.inddBest Animated Feature

Wind Rises
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Monsters University

These are in order of likehood of winning. I believe Frozen will get the statue. It’s a comeback story of Disney, with great songs and nice story and couple of fierce female leads. Plus it’s making big bucks at the box office; at the moment it’s collected $712,680,546 worldwide. Not bad. Only upset could be Miayazaki’s Wind Rises because it is said that it’s his last work. The other three are there only because Gold Derby tells you to pick five. I’m not sure the Academy will actually pick five or if they will just pick three.

actofkillingBest Documentary Feature

20 Feet From Stardom
The Act of Killing
The Square
Life According to Sam
Stories We Tell
Tim’s Vermeer

These are not in particular order. I will probably end up ditching Tim’s Vermeer and Life According to Sam tonight after revaluading all of the contenders but I want to give myself a bit more time because this is one of those categories you can’t be sure what they will pick and also one of those that might make you the owner of $1,000 gift card. I believe The Act of Killing will win. But Sarah Polley’s Stories We Tell has also been succesful around the world and Blackfish has gained a lot of attention. Let’s see.

Best Animated Short

Get a Horse
Room on the Broom
Mr. Hublot
The Missing Scarf
Subconsious Password

I have seen only the first one, it was showed before the screening of Frozen and I really liked it. It was a mix-up with the classic Disney and today’s world of excellent 3D. Room on the Broom looks fab and it’s voiced by famous British actors, so I believe it’s good. If you want to check trailer for all of the short-listed contenders, visit Rope of Silicon. Mr. Hublot looked also great and it has nice 8.0 grade at IMDb. The Missing Scarf has won some awards at the festival circuit and I think I’ll choose Feral instead of Subconsious Password just because I like the look of it more. But I think Disney will win this one.

Best Documentary Short

The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
Jujitsu-ing Reality

Same thing as with the list above, I will left out the last one on this list but I wanted to show it to you anyway. I basically picked these according to the subject matters. The first one sounds like a winner to me and to the most of the Top24 Users of Gold Derby too. Here are introductions to all of the films by Anne Thompson of Indiewire. Here’s the whole documentary of The Lady in Number 6:

Best Live Action Short

The Voorman Problem
Tiger Boy
Dva (Two)
Throat Song
Aquel No Era Jo (That Wasn’t Me)
Do I Have to Take Care of Everything

Well, The Voorman Problem seems like a winner in this category. A short film with Martin Freeman (who’s hot out of third season of beloved BBC’s Sherlock and also can be seen in The Hobbit trology) and a BAFTA nomination from last year. Tiger Boy and Dva (Two) has quite equal support among the people predicting this category. I especially like the story of the latter. Kush and Throat Song are also quite a tie. The first one is inspired by a true story and seems like the one that the Academy would like. The latter won Genie that is a Canada’s answer to the Oscars. Aquel No Era Jo got the Goya award equivalent to the Oscar in Spain. I have hard time deciding between it and Throat Song. And I just included Do I Have to Take Care of Everything because it’s made in Finland. Here’s some thoughts of this category at Film School Rejects and a trailer for The Voorman Problem:

That’s it. Tomorrow is THE day. Last year I was seventh amongs the a few thousand participants in Gold Derby. Tomorrow I’ll know how it went this year. Check the final predictions at Oscar Predictions 2014. I’ll be updating it shortly.




  1. Yay Frozen! I hope Blackfish doesn’t win best documentary. Yes, it is chilling and horrifying, but the cinematography is pretty much non-existent. It’s just interviews mashed together with slow-mo park footage.

  2. […] 个人预测它的得奖概率为55%。原因并非它最优秀,而是评委会喜欢大公司的具有复古气质的题材轻松的作品,加上它素质也不低,足以给这些理由一个安全罩。评论界已经把它捧到天上了,连用了华尔特的声音都成为该得奖的理由(why?) 民间也不乏只看了这一部就说它应该得奖的普通观众。现场的大叔大妈老头老太们亦最爱它。 […]

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